Nos la propone el bloguero Anti-Mulah:
Having examined all aspects of the situation on the ground to the extent to which I am privy, the West has to have two main goals:
1. To put their backing behind two or more of Iran’s major tribes, like the Qashghai and Bakhtiari, perhaps in combination with the Boyer-Ahmadi, which all have tribal borders with each other. And oil rich Khuzestan.
2. To constitutionally establish a separation of church and state (the tribes will not object as they hate the Mullahs so badly they will enjoy poking the secular stick into their eye).
Reason? The Mullahs wanted and tried and pushed to replace the traditional tribal leaders (Khans) with a Mullah appointed by Tehran. To the extent of executing some of those same leaders, notably from the Qashghai tribe.
The new Constitution must simply state that NO religion is the religion of the country (not the case even under the Monarchy). And that the separation of church and state is so firmly driven into the document that it would be impossible to weaken it as time went by.
AND, finally, the Methodology:
Simplistically, these three tribes – for example – would revolt against the central Mullah regime and be assisted in this by he West and Israel. They border on Khuzestan, so they can draw upon the oil rich province to join them and prevent seccession.
These tribes used to be fierce fighters traditionally and have quite large numbers, going into the millions, so would become a force to be reckoned with and because of terrain, not easily suppressed.
As opposed to the Kurds and Azaris, who desire a separationist reward, these are «landlocked» and may desire a federal type of set up with their tribal areas equivalent to the «States» in the USA.
So here in a matter of a few paragraphs is the formula.
Se trata de utilizar dos tribus suficientemente numerosas y enemistadas con el régimen, pues el gobierno central quiere imponer sus propios dirigentes a los jefes de la tribu. Se alzarían si contaran con el respaldo norteamericano. Son excelentes guerreros.
Forzarían una descentralización de Irán, pero no son secesionistas, ya que están en el centro de Irán. A veces es así de simple.