La “Guerra de los Rehenes” (VIII): ¿Quién va ganando?
Pues no sabría decir. Aquí dicen que Israel va perdiendo en realidad:
Israel, en su ‘Crisis del 98′: La opinión pública se abandona al derrotismo en medio de conatos de revueltas y agrios reproches entre sectores de opinión. OLMERT NO HA SABIDO CONDUCIR ESTA GUERA.
Loss of momentum. Esta guerra ha sido un preludio. A partir de ahora se va a extinguir poco a poco, hasta que vuelba a arder con más violencia y con la participación directa de l verdadero protagonista, Irán.
El más crítico con Olmert, por C. Glick del Jerusalem Post: Amateur hour is over
… as the IDF marches on to an uncertain but still forward marching trumpet, it is becoming increasingly clear that Israel’s chief impediment to victory is its government.
THE UNDENIABLE fact is that the nature of the war that Israel is now fighting in Lebanon is not local. It is not about territory. It is about jihad. Hizbullah is not simply a terrorist organization. It is the Iranian army. According to press reports, over the past six years, some 3,000 Hizbullah fighters underwent military training in Iran. Iran and Syria are not simply Hizbullah’s patrons. They are active participants in this war against the West in which Israel is a frontline state.
Yet due to Olmert’s weak and incompetent leadership and Rice’s opportunistic laziness, both the US and Israel are pretending it is possible to see the war as a simple, isolated event. As a result, they are advancing purported solutions, like cease-fires, multinational forces and empty declarations of victory that only increase the dangers.
Pero aquí dicen que va ganando:
With all the pain at the losses of the war and the destruction it wrought, this is also a psychological war and a battle for the popular consciousness. And in this battle, Israel is certainly winning. The regular army and the reserves are displaying determination based on a belief in the justness of the cause. Israeli society is shaking off the spider webs of Hassan Nasrallah’s metaphor. Hezbollah and Iran gained nothing. Instead of Israel being deterred by the missile threat, it is searing into the consciousness of Tehran, Damascus and perhaps also Hamas, that force of arms and threats will get them nowhere. These entities have to understand that they will get far more concessions from Israel in negotiations.
There are lots of stories going around Beirut that Hezbollah M.P. Mohammed Raad is dead,” says Fawaz. “And get this–more than 500 Hezbollah fighters have been killed and are lying around area hospitals. That’s a lot of virgins on call.”
“The new one,” Fawaz says, “is that they’re going to play the next World Cup in the Daheyh [the Shiite neighborhood]–the whole thing’s been leveled nice and flat.”
No sabría que decir. Por supuesto, nominalmente va a acabar en victoria de Israel, porque no puede perder el envite, pero quizás sea solo una victoria temporal. De hecho, toda victoria que no derrote moralmente al enemigo lo es. Ese será el caso si hay acuerdo de alto el fuego en vez de destrucción completa de Hezbolá.
